Is Canada in a recession? Newest month-to-month GDP numbers present economic system hasn’t expanded since Could

Canada’s economic system is exhibiting clear indicators of a slowdown, as after shrinking in June, the entire worth of all items and providers bought was basically unchanged in July and August — and certain September, too.

Statistics Canada reported Tuesday that the nation’s gross home product was flat in August, because the service sector expanded slightly however output from goods-producing industries shrank.

Canada’s GDP in August got here in at $2.082 trillion throughout the month. That is barely forward of simply over $2.081 trillion the earlier month.

Remaining numbers for September aren’t but out there, however early indicators recommend the development continued into September. Meaning there is a good likelihood that Canada’s economic system has not grown in any significant method since Could.

The numbers for August had been worse than the slight 0.1 per cent uptick that economists had been anticipating — and worse than the 0.1 per cent uptick that the info company had forecast in its preliminary estimate.

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“That leaves the third quarter exhibiting no development and truly a slight contraction in line with these month-to-month GDP numbers, which is effectively beneath the Financial institution of Canada’s 0.8 per cent development projection,” stated Tiago Figueiredo, an economist with Desjardins.

The information company beforehand reported that the economic system shrank within the April-to-June quarter, so the numbers launched Tuesday recommend that Canada’s economic system hasn’t grown for not less than two quarters in a row.

“Whether or not or not the economic system is already in recession is much less vital than the truth that the lagged impacts of financial coverage are prone to materially depress financial exercise transferring ahead,” Figueiredo stated. “Because of this, we anticipate the economic system to extra clearly enter a recession in 2024.”

Benjamin Reitzes, an economist with Financial institution of Montreal, known as the GDP numbers “yet one more crystal clear signal that the Financial institution of Canada needs to be carried out mountain climbing,” including that the weak exhibiting will “trigger recession chatter to ramp up rapidly.”

“The mushy financial backdrop, which nonetheless has draw back, will drive inflation down over time … it is only a query of how rapidly.”

Others, nonetheless, say it is too quickly to make use of the dreaded “R” phrase: recession

“GDP has principally been trending flat for some time, which does not actually appear to be a recession to me,” stated Derek Holt, an economist with Scotiabank.

Affect of wildfires and strikes

He notes that numbers for the summer time had been weighed down by two components which might be unlikely to proceed to have an effect transferring ahead: wildfires and a slew of strikes.

With most of these within the rearview mirror, the economic system is prone to bounce again slightly now to catch up from work that was misplaced prior to now.

“Utilizing the month-to-month GDP figures, we can’t say the economic system has entered technical recession. All we are able to say at finest is that it has stalled and is bouncing on backside,” he stated.

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